Posts tagged with "Politico/Morning Consult Poll"

Republicans shrug off Trump ’24 bid: ‘The excitement’s just not there’

November 29, 2022

The former president is not bending the GOP to his will the way he used to. Donald Trump’s lackluster campaign announcement on November 15 was one thing. His real problem is fast becoming the collective shrug Republicans have given him in the week-plus since, reports Politico.

Far from freezing out potential competitors, Trump’s announcement was followed by a slew of potential 2024 contenders appearing at the Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Las Vegas over the weekend, where at least one Republican who previously had said she would defer to Trump if he ranformer U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley—now said she is considering running in a “serious way.”

A super PAC supporting Trump’s chief rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, plans to begin airing TV ads in Iowa on Friday, December 2. And even the news that Elon Musk was lifting Trump’s ban on Twitter wasn’t breaking through.

The morning after the former president’s account was reinstated—a development once viewed as a significant lift to Trump’s candidacy—Fox News Sunday spent more time talking about the ticketing debacle surrounding Taylor Swift’s upcoming tour.

“The people talking about [Trump’s campaign announcement] in my circles, it’s almost like it didn’t happen,” said Bob Vander Plaats, the evangelical leader in Iowa who is influential in primary politics in the first-in-the-nation caucus state and who was a national co-chair of Senator Ted Cruz’s campaign in 2016. Donald“That, to me, is what is telling, where people believe we probably need to move forward; not look in the rear view mirror.”

Ever since he steamrolled through the 2016 presidential primary, and even after his defeat four years later, Trump had bent the GOP to his will—reshaping the party’s infrastructure in Washington, D.C., and the states to serve his interests, tearing down Republican dynasties, and hand-picking congressional and statewide nominees.Se

Now, leading Republicans are no longer cowering before Trump, and for the first time since he rode down the escalator in 2015, many aren’t listening to him at all. They are dodging questions about Trump’s candidacy, or openly defying him by rallying around DeSantis—even though the Florida governor is not yet, as Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming declared, the “leader of the Republican Party.

“There’s a significant number of people out there who really are opposed to him, and I don’t think will change their minds over the course of the next two years,” said Tom Tancredo, a former Republican congressman and anti-illegal immigration crusader from Colorado who called Trump “one of the best presidents we’ve ever had.”

He added, “You can’t deny that that’s a problem for him … I’m worried about his electability, surely.”

However, Trump may still be the frontrunner to win the GOP nomination. In a Politico/Morning Consult poll this week, Trump was still running 15 percentage points ahead of DeSantis among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents. If a wide field of more traditionalist Republicans split the primary vote in early nominating states, as they did in 2016, Trump could still cut through his competitors with less-than-majority support.

“His unique selling point is, ‘I did this, I fixed the economy, I gave you the Abraham Accords, I kept peace, I fixed the border with no help from the Washington politicians,’” said one Republican strategist close to Trump.

Trump’s path, the strategist said, is to remind Republicans what they liked about his presidency, and to emphasize that, unlike his competitors, he has “done it before.”

What Trump also has done, however, is lose—and drag the GOP down with him. Following a midterm election in which Republicans failed to retake the Senate, the GOP is desperate for a win in 2024. And while presidential primaries are always colored to some degree by concerns about electability, the earliest stages of the 2024 contest, as one longtime GOP operative in Iowa put it, are “just about winning.”

Research contact: @politico

Poll: Few U.S. voters believe Trump, Biden are in robust good health

June 25, 2020

A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll has found that 33% of U.S. voters rate President Donald Trump’s health as poor—and 27% are not so sure that former Vice President Joe Biden is in fine fettle either.

Conversely, 30% believe that the 74-year-old incumbent POTUS is in good or excellent health; and 39% believe Biden is hale and hearty.

Last week, the Trump campaign launched a website citing “Biden’s descent into incoherence” and arguing the former vice president is in cognitive decline. Trump’s rhetoric has constantly attacked attack Biden as “sleepy.”

Yet days after the rollout of the website, Trump found himself on the defensive regarding his physical well-being, Politico reports. Footage from his June 13 graduation address at the U.S. Military Academy showed the president haltingly descending a ramp and using two hands to drink a glass of water.

Although the videos circulated among liberal circles online for a number of days, the story was largely forgotten before Trump devoted significant time to addressing the incidents during his rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma on June 20.

Voters will split sharply along party lines in the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. Fifty-seven percent of Democrats said Trump was in poor health, while 52% of Republicans said the same for Biden. Just 7% of Republicans rated Trump’s health as poor, and only 6 percent of Democrats said Biden was in poor health.

“The state of President Trump’s health is the latest issue to fall along party lines. While a plurality of Republican voters rate the president’s health as ‘excellent,’ only 3% of Democrats say the same,” said Kyle Dropp, co-founder and chief research officer at Morning Consult.

If elected, Biden would be the oldest person to assume the presidency on Inauguration Day—surpassing Trump, who is the current record-holder.

The former vice president, known for his history of gaffes, has had to combat questions about his age and health throughout his primary campaign.

Neither man has released his full health records.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted June 19-21, surveying 1,988 registered voters.

Research contact: @politico

Trump’s impeachment tantrums disengage key 2020 supporters

October 4, 2019

Women across the nation are viewing President Donald Trump’s impeachment-incited tirades with consternation and concern, Politico reports. And they do not represent the only key voting bloc that has backed off since the whistleblower report was released to Congress in late September.

Indeed, nearly a half-dozen polls conducted since September 24—when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) announced the official launch of an impeachment inquiry—have found female voters rallying behind her call to action; intensifying concerns among White House allies that the white women who helped carry Trump to victory in 2016 can no longer be counted on next November.

Specifically, 57% of registered female voters strongly or somewhat approved of impeachment in a CBS survey released September 30; and  62% of women in a Quinnipiac University survey released Monday said they thought “Trump believes he is above the law.”

The development comes, according to Politico, just as two more key demographics—Independent voters and college-educated whites—are exhibiting ever-larger “fault lines” in their resistance to impeachment.

What’s more, the allegations against Trump—that he leveraged U.S. aid to Ukraine, holding back funding unless the eastern European nation agreed to supply “opposition research” on Joe Biden, a Democratic frontrunner in the 2020 presidential election—also are changing the dynamics on Capitol Hill.

Should impeachment gain the support of an undeniable majority of likely voters, Republicans legislators who previously declined to distance themselves from the president could quickly change their calculus, the news outlet says—setting Trump on the same lonely course that led to President Richard Nixon’s Watergate-era resignation in August 1974.

“From my point of view as a Republican pollster, the president’s base has been solid so far,” Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, which oversaw an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted last week, told Politico during an interview. “But college-educated whites have electoral significance for us in the suburbs and can completely shift the dynamic and the conversation just by virtue of shifting the overall numbers.”

In some cases, that shift already has started: Fifty percent of college-educated whites in an NPR/Marist College survey said they approved of House Democrats’ decision to launch the formal impeachment inquiry into Trump. That compares to a narrower margin of support for the move (45-43) in a Politico/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday.

“If you look at college-educated whites, those are probably some of the most engaged voters. They are a big and important chunk of the electorate and they have shifted the most resolutely toward impeachment so far,” Roberts said.

“I really don’t like where we are right now,” said one prominent Republican pollster.

To be sure, Politico says, some of the same polls include evidence suggesting impeachment could become a political risk for Democrats as they head into a heated election year. And the rapid-pace environment in which the impeachment process has already unfolded, combined with varying levels of understanding of the process itself, mean a lot of voters are still in “wait-and-see mode,” according to Roberts.

Finally, some polls have underscored mixed feelings among voters toward the former vice president, which would be a positive sign for the president. For example, 42% of voters in a Monmouth survey said Biden “probably exerted pressure on Ukrainian officials to avoid investigating” his son during his time in office; but only 26%t of voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said they believe Biden is attempting to conceal a potential scandal ahead of 2020.

With Elizabeth Warren already ahead by several percentage points in key primary and caucus areas, the opinions on Biden may, in the end, be moot.

Research contact: @politico

Deal or no deal? Senate to vote on Trump’s ‘national emergency’ declaration this week

March 14, 2019

As of March 13, fully 52% of U.S. voters continue to oppose President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the southern border, according to findings of a Politico/Morning Consult poll.

Based on the polling results, Trump has failed to build support for his declaration in the face of congressional opposition; the results are essentially unchanged since he signed an order to reallocate military funds toward construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Only 38% of voters support the declaration.

The partisan divides suggest that this week’s Senate vote to nullify the president’s power to declare a national emergency could put the squeeze on Republican incumbents in battleground states. Indeed, G.O.P. Senators Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are expected to join Democrats in voting disapprove Trump’s declaration

Likewise, Democrats are expected to reject a move by Republicans that would amend the president’s powers under the 1975 National Emergencies Act. Under the proposed legislation, national emergencies would end after 30 days if Congress does not vote to extend them. (And the Senate vote against the president’s emergency declaration would become a moot issue.)

“Republican Senators are proposing new legislation to allow the president to violate the Constitution just this once in order to give themselves cover,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) said on her official website, adding, “The House will not take up this legislation to give President Trump a pass.”

By promising not to bring the legislation to the floor, Pelosi hopes to put pressure on Republican lawmakers trying to balance their desire to support Trump’s immigration policy and their professed concerns about presidential power, CNBC reported on Wednesday.

Trump has recently tried to pressure Republicans by framing the vote as one about border security rather than executive power. CNBC said.

The president has pledged to veto any bill that would kill “emergency” funding for his wall. Neither the House nor the Senate appears to have the two-thirds majority support needed to overcome his opposition.

Research contact: @jacobpramuk