Posts tagged with "New York Times/Siena College poll"

Biden campaign targets two key battleground states with ads during Thanksgiving Day football game

November 23, 2023

The Biden campaign has drawn up a blitz of Thanksgiving Day advertisements in two key battleground states—airing a pair of TV spots during the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers NFL game this week, reports CNN.

Two ads highlighting President Joe Biden’s economic record will air during Thursday’s game in the Detroit and Milwaukee media markets, the campaign said in an announcement shared first with CNN.

It’s a move aimed at putting some points on the board with a general election audience, the campaign said, with the game “expected to reach 1.1 million adults over the age of 35 and 850,000 households in the Detroit market alone.”

As Republicans duke it out in the primary, Biden’s campaign is looking down field to next November—and voters in Michigan and Wisconsin where these ads are running will be critical to Biden’s electoral map.

In Michigan, Biden defeated Trump by 2.8 percentage points in 2020; while, in Wisconsin, Biden won by a narrower margin—6 percentage points.

But polling released earlier this month indicates Biden’s support could be slipping in those midwestern swing states. In a New York Times–Siena College poll of Michigan voters, 43% chose Biden, compared to 48% for Trump. In Wisconsin, Biden narrowly edged out Trump, 47% to 45%.

The Thanksgiving Day ad placement is part of the campaign’s $25 million ad buy announced in August and marks its latest play to reach battleground state voters during football games.

One of the ads discusses Biden’s middle-class upbringing in Scranton, Pennsylvania—making an argument that acknowledges ongoing economic strain. The ad, titled “Never Left” points to the president’s work to bring down costs on drug pricing, scale back health insurance premiums, and invest in clean energy to lower power costs. Another ad, titled “Finally,” highlights the administration’s efforts to lower prescription drug costs.

Biden, the narrator says in one ad, “knows what life is like for working people. And knows middle class life is too expensive right now.”

“For Joe Biden, it’s about restoring the sense of security working people deserve. That simple promise. That peace of mind. He’s determined to get it back – because of where he’s from and who he is,” the narrator says.

“This Thanksgiving as Americans come together, we are proud to highlight how President Biden and Vice President Harris are focused on the issues that matter most to American families and delivering real tangible results that are lowering costs for everyday Americans,” said Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez.

The Biden team kicked off this effort in September by running TV ads during the NFL season opener between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Those ads ran in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In all, the Biden campaign has made more than 90 ad placements around NFL and college football programing totaling more than $1.17 million dollars, a campaign official says.

Research contact: @CNN

Trump says he won’t sign loyalty pledge required for G.O.P. debate

August 11, 2023

Former President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, August 9, that he was unwilling to meet one of the requirements set by the RNC to participate in the first Republican presidential debate—refusing to sign a pledge to support the eventual nominee, according to a report by The New York Times.

“I wouldn’t sign the pledge,” he said in an interview with the news outlet, Newsmax. “Why would I sign a pledge? There are people on there that I wouldn’t have.”

The decision would seem to rule out the possibility of his participation in the debate on Wednesday, August 23, yet he also said that he would announce next week whether he planned to take part.

Asked for comment on Thursday, the Republican National Committee, which sets the rules, referred to past interviews in which its chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, has defended the pledge and said the committee will hold everyone to it.

“The rules aren’t changing,” she said on CNN last month. “We’ve been very vocal with them.”

Trump also said in the Newsmax interview that he wasn’t convinced it was worth it for him to debate given how far ahead he is in the primary. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed him leading the field by an enormous margin—more than 35 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitor, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida.

“Why would you do that when you’re leading by so much?” he asked.

Some other Republicans criticized Trump on Thursday, August 10, for his refusal to commit to supporting a nominee other than himself. “Every Republican running for President would be better than Joe Biden,” Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia said on Twitter. “Any candidate who does not commit to supporting the eventual nominee is putting themselves ahead of the future of our country.”

According to the Times, Trump’s vacillation over the pledge is not new; he objected to signing the same loyalty pledge during his first campaign eight years ago. He ultimately did, but then took it back.

That history underscores that the pledge is, in practice, unenforceable. Party leaders can refuse to let a candidate debate for not signing, but they can’t force someone who does sign to actually support another nominee next year.

Research contact: @nytimes

Libertarian candidate drops out of Arizona Senate race and endorses Republican Blake Masters

November 2, 2022

Marc Victor, the Libertarian candidate running for Senate in Arizona—who had threatened to play spoiler in the closely watched race—is dropping out and endorsing Blake Masters, the Republican nominee, reports The New York Times.

The decision, announced on Tuesday, November 1, gives Masters a lift heading into the final week as he seeks to unseat Senator Mark Kelly, the Democratic incumbent, who has generally held a narrow lead in the polls.

“This is another major boost of momentum as we consolidate our support,” Masters said in a statement to The New York Times.

Marc Victor, the Libertarian candidate, and Masters spoke on Monday, October 31, for a 20-minute recorded conversation that Victor is expected to publish, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Victor had made such a conversation a precondition to quitting—technically offering such an opportunity both to Masters and to Senator Kelly.

“I found Blake to be generally supportive of the Live and Let Live Global Peace Movement,” Victor said in a statement. “After that discussion, I believe it is in the best interests of freedom and peace to withdraw my candidacy and enthusiastically support Blake Masters for United States Senate.”

Victor’s underfunded campaign had a chance to make more of an impact than some other third-party candidates this year, in part because he was onstage for the race’s lone debate. (He made waves in the appearance by suggesting the “age of consent” is something “that reasonable minds disagree on” and “should be up for a vote.”)

Masters appears to have gone to some lengths to court Libertarian-minded voters and assuage any concerns from Victor. Last Thursday, he posted a picture from 2010 of himself with Ron Paul, the former congressman and Libertarian folk hero, saying he was “honored” to have Paul’s endorsement. Masters also made recent appearances on Paul’s podcast and another Libertarian podcast.

Victor previously had been funded, at least in part, by Democrats, presumably hoping to redirect some votes away from the Republican nominee.

Donations included $5,000 from the Save Democracy PAC, which says on its website that it is pursuing “a nationwide effort to confront and defeat Republican extremism,” and another $5,000 from Defeat Republicans PAC. In May, Ron Conway, the California-based Democratic investor, gave Victor part of more than $45,000 in donations from various people who share the family name in California; those funds account for about one-third of everything Victor raised in total.

New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday showed Senator Kelly ahead, 51% to 45%, with Victor garnering 1% support. Victor has been shown as earning a larger share of the vote in other polls, including one in mid-October from the progressive group Data for Progress that had Victor pulling in 3% with Senator Kelly and Masters tied.

Research contact: @nytimes