Posts tagged with "Hart Research"

Above, findings of an NBC News survey conducted November 3-5. (Visual source: NBC News)

Democrats catch up to GOP on enthusiasm in final NBC News poll before midterms

November 9, 2022

The final national NBC News poll of the 2022 midterms finds a highly competitive campaign landscape ahead of Election Day. While Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in enthusiasm, President Joe Biden remains unpopular and voters express deep dissatisfaction about the state of the country.

NBC News reports that 48% of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress as the outcome of Tuesday’s elections, while 47% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress.

That’s a reversal from October, when 48% preferred a GOP-controlled Congress versus 47% who wanted Democrats in charge—although the shift is well within the poll’s margin of error.

Among all registered voters, congressional preference is tied at 47%-47%—essentially unchanged from last month, when Democrats held a narrow 1-point edge, 47%-46%.

Yet what has changed in the poll is that Democrats have caught up to Republicans in election interest. An identical 73% of Democrats and Republicans express high interest, registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale.

In October’s NBC News poll, Republicans held a 9-point advantage in high voter interest, 78% to 69%, after Democrats had previously closed the enthusiasm gap following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June.

Still, the overall political environment remains grim for Democrats. Only 44% of voters approve of President Biden’s job performance, while 53% disapprove; more than 70% think the country is headed in the wrong direction; and a combined 81% say they are “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with the U.S. economy.

What’s more, 47% of all voters say they want a “great deal” of change in direction from the way in which Biden has been leading the country — higher than what the poll showed for the first midterms for Donald Trump (44%), Barack Obama (41%) and Bill Clinton (36%), all of which resulted in midterm election drubbings for those past presidents.

“President Biden and the Democrats are in for a miserable election,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and his team at Hart Research.

“The Democrats have to run way ahead of the president to win a statewide race,” said McInturff. “I would expect to see to see a large number of losses in the House and possibly a switch in control of the Senate.”

But Horwitt counters that, despite those traditional midterm fundamentals, Democrats have made this election competitive, which could save Democrats in some contests.

“In January, if you told me that the national political dynamics would not improve but Democrats had a fighting chance to avert a typical first midterm shellacking, I’d take it,” he said.

“And here we are,” Horwitt added.

Other findings

38% of all voters say they’ve already voted, either by mail (19%) or early in person (19%); another 13% say they plan to vote early, and 45% say they will be voting at the polls on Election Day.
Former President Barack Obama is the most popular figure measured in the poll (at 51% positive, 37% negative)—followed by President Biden (42% positive, 50% negative), the Democratic Party (38% positive, 47% negative), the Republican Party (35% positive, 48% negative) and former President Donald Trump (35% positive, 55% negative).
Voters are divided on their choice of the bigger concern about the upcoming election: 47% are more concerned that Republicans will take control of Congress and make the wrong kinds of changes, versus 45% who are more concerned that Democrats will continue to control Congress and not make enough change.

Research contact: @NBCNews

Above, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. (Photo source: Alchetron)

Don’t count Schumer out: He plans to force votes on evidence, testimony that will ‘squeeze’ Republicans

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January 14, 2020

While, in the run-up to the impeachment trial, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has appeared to be unflinching in his support of President Donald Trump, he should not underestimate his political rival, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Politico reports.

Indeed, although McConnell already has locked up enough Republican votes to ignore demands for a bipartisan framework for the trial, his Democratic counterpart is preparing a counteroffensive. Schumer plans to force a series of votes designed to squeeze vulnerable Republicans and harm them on the campaign trail if they side with Trump, the news outlet says.

Democrats argue the half-dozen at-risk GOP senators will need some daylight between them and Trump to get reelected. And if they vote against Schumer’s motions to hear new evidence and witness testimony, they’ll be seen as Trump sycophants — undermining their bids and boosting Schumer’s odds of becoming majority leader.

Support for obtaining new documents at the trial is “even stronger than we thought, with large numbers of Republicans supporting it,” Schumer said in an interview with Politico. “And when you go against what the American people feel strongly about, on an issue they’re paying attention to, it’s not a good idea.”

Public surveys in key swing states back up Democrats’ claims. Polling from Hart Research found that 63% of voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina would react unfavorably if their senator voted against calling witnesses or subpoenaing documents during the Senate impeachment trial.

Another poll from Morning Consult found 57% of voters believe the Senate should call additional witnesses. That includes 71% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, and 40% of Republicans.

What’s more, the president’s former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s offer to testify has given some momentum to Democrats’ calls for witnesses and documents about the White House’s decision to withhold military aid to Ukraine. Democrats also want to hear from Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, Office of Management and Budget official Michael Duffey, and Mulvaney Adviser Robert Blair.

“If the Republicans ram through process that ultimately leads to no witnesses, I think they do it at their own peril,” Senator Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey), a former chairman of the party’s campaign arm, told Politico. “Some of these members: They have an audience of one. But I think they forgot that there’s a broader audience that they’re going to have to face at election time.”

“The procedural votes may be more important than the vote on removal or acquittal. Because what will matter more to voters than where a senator lands is how he or she got there,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster for Hart Research. “So if Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) or any of the other Republicans vote for acquittal and the takeaway for voters is this is a political or partisan vote on an important issue, that will have a long lasting impact.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said that she will release the articles of impeachment to McConnell this week.

Research contact: @politico

Photo source: HBVL.be

Workplace equality stalls for women

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March 27, 2018

More than half of Americans (52%) say that men still do not accept and treat women as equals in the workplace—a plurality that remains virtually unchanged since the poll asked the same question in 1999, based on findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on March 22.

Women are particularly pessimistic, with 61% of the 1,100 respondents saying that their male counterparts fail to treat them as equals—again, exactly the same share as 19 years ago. What’s more, the same percentage (44%) say they have personally experienced discrimination because of their gender.

The stagnancy of how women view their treatment in the workplace comes as more of them have taken on a role as their household’s primary wage earner. Nearly half of employed women (49%) say that they work primarily because they are their family’s main breadwinner, up from 37% in 2000. That includes 42% of working women with children.

“While Americans have become less judgmental about working mothers, this is a story about taking one step forward and one step back,” says Corrie Hunt of Hart Research, which conducted the poll along with Public Opinion Strategies. “As Americans, we’ve become more willing to say the right things about women in the workplace, but we haven’t put the supports in place to back it up. Our words have not yet been put into actions.”

Perceptions of working women who also are raising children have, indeed, become far more positive in the last two decades. In 2000, just 46% of Americans called it a positive development that more women are working while raising children, while 38% called it a negative development. Now? An overwhelming majority, nearly eight in 10 (78%) call it positive, and just 14 percent disagree.

However, the pollsters state, there also is a lingering partisan difference in views of how women overall are accepted in the workplace. While only 28% of Democrats say that women are treated as equals in the workplace and 68% disagree, Republicans say that women are treated equally by almost a 20-point margin. Nearly six in 10 Republicans (58 percent) say women are treated as equals by their male counterparts, while 36% disagree.

And there’s also a notable gender gap when it comes to ways that women experience workplace inequality. Majorities of employed men don’t believe that there’s a significant gap in how women are paid, promoted and valued at their workplaces, while employed women are a bit more divided. Only about one in seven men say male workers get promoted more readily than women and get paid more for doing the same work, while about one in three women say the same.

Research contact: contact.nbcnews@nbcuni.com

Apple products on the company's official website.

Most U.S. households own more than two Apple products

November 10, 2017

With apologies to New York City, just call America “The Big Apple,” and be done with it. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey released last month has found that fully 64% of all Americans now own an Apple product—up from 50% when the question was last asked five years ago. The average American household reports owning 2.6 Apple products, up by one product from the 2012 survey.

Among the products offered by Apple are iPhones, iPads, iPods, Macbooks, iMacs, Apple Watches, Apple TVs and various accessories.

“I cannot think of any other product — especially any other product at a high price point — that has that kind of permeation with the public and level of growth,” said Jay Campbell, pollster with Hart Research, which conducted the survey on behalf of CNBC, along with Public Opinion Strategies.

The Apple product line is pervasive by income group, age, race, sex and region of the country, according to the poll results. Indeed, more than half of nearly all demographic groups report owning at least one Apple product.

The household ownership rate is below 50% for only a few groups, including those with incomes under $30,000, retirees and women over age 50. By contrast, 87% of Americans with incomes over $100,000 report owning at least one. And the wealthiest Americans own 4.7 products per household.

The survey also found that 64% of respondents say their time on their smartphone is “mostly productive and useful,” while 27% acoutner that it is “mostly unproductive.” Young people, Midwesterners and those with just a high school education are most likely to report wasting time on their smartphones.

As for usage, it is dominated by phone calls, emails and texts, followed by social media. Few Americans say watching videos, playing games and shopping are the main uses for their handhelds.

The poll of 800 respondents across the country was conducted late last month and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points

Research contact: @steveliesman