Biden wins the Michigan primary—but not by enough to calm Democratic angst

February 29, 2024

President Joe Biden scored a decisive win in the Michigan primary on Tuesday evening, February 27—clearing an organized protest vote against his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, although not necessarily by enough to calm Democratic jitters,  reports Politico.

Biden garnered 81.1% of the votes; with 13.3% of ballots cast for Uncommitted; 3%, for Marianne Williamson; and 27% for Dean Phililips.

Tens of thousands of Michiganders on Tuesday cast their ballots for “uncommitted”—putting them on track to garner more than 10 % of the vote statewide. That figure seemed likely to exceed past levels of “uncommitted” votes in Michigan Democratic primaries, though fall short of sparking a political earthquake.

Democrats were divided over how to treat the outcome, noting that Biden continued to dominate the primary in ways similar to, or even exceeding, past incumbents (but also wary that significant pockets of discontent in the party could prove fatal in the general election).

“I don’t see a pathway for them to win Michigan with that many people not voting for them,” said Wa’el Alzayat, CEO of the Muslim advocacy organization Emgage. “I just don’t.”

In his statement late Tuesday evening, Biden thanked “every Michigander who made their voice heard today,” noting that “exercising the right to vote and participating in our democracy is what makes America great.”

He discussed abortion, union jobs, prescription drugs, and the need to protect fertility treatments. There was no mention of Gaza or Israel, or the cease-fire demands that sparked the “uncommitted” protest vote campaign.

On the Republican side, a similar debate about party unity has taken place. Donald Trump also won the Michigan primary convincingly on Tuesday. But the former president continues to face a faction of Republicans who refuse to back his candidacy despite his chokehold on the nomination.

Trump took 68.2% of the vote; with 26.6% of ballots cast for Nikki Haley; 3% for Uncommitted; and 1.2% for Ron DeSantis.

The fissures in both parties have sparked concerns over how each candidate will fare in this critical swing state in November.

For Trump, the threats have been both political and legal in nature. His unbroken swing of early state victories has given him a commanding position in Republican politics. But he remains embroiled in court cases stemming from his business practices and his time in office. And he continues to slash at primary rivals—past and present—even after they have ceased to threaten him politically.

For Biden, the threats are strictly political. A coalition of Arab-American leaders in Michigan organized the push for the “Uncommitted” vote through the “Listen to Michigan” campaign. The effort involved organized protests and phone-banks—reaching tens of thousands of voters, with an aim to pressure the president into supporting an immediate cease-fire in Gaza.

To counteract the palpable discontent over his Israel policy, Biden dispatched top administration officials and allies in Congress to Michigan to talk with community leaders about the Israel-Hamas conflict.  The state’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer encouraged Democrats to vote for the president even as other Democrats—including Representative Rashida Tlaib, who represents parts of Detroit and Dearborn, and former presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke—pushed voters towards the “Uncommitted” line.

Notably, Biden said on Monday he thought a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas could be in place in a week—“I hope by the end of the weekend,” Biden told reporters, when he was asked about the timing. His comments came ahead of Tuesday’s vote, but they’re also timed with ongoing talks between the U.S.A., Israel, Egypt, and Qatar over a six-week pause in the fighting between Israel and Hamas.

Research contact: @politico